Dashboard
Macro regime, liquidity, sentiment & leading indicators
Row 1: Main Market Indices
Row 2: Components of Macro Regime Composite
Row 3: Components of Sentiment Oscilllator (0 = Fear, 100 = Greed)
Row 4: Components of Inter-Market Leading Indicator
About MarketOwl.net
Signal vs. Noise: Quant macro regime analysis
Why We Built This
The financial markets of the 21st century have undergone a fundamental shift. We have moved from an era driven by individual corporate fundamentals to a "Macro-Driven Market" dominated by global liquidity, central bank policies, and collective psychology.
The market collapse of 2022 proved that traditional "Static Asset Allocation"—like the 60/40 portfolio—is no longer a safe haven. In periods of soaring inflation, stocks and bonds can fall simultaneously, erasing the benefits of diversification.
Modern investors require a Dynamic Asset Allocation system capable of reading the massive "Regimes" of the market, rather than just reacting to price movements.
Our Philosophy: Signal vs. Noise
Daily news headlines and temporary price fluctuations are "Noise." True returns come from the ability to filter this noise and capture the economic "Signal."
"MarketOwl acts as a compass, identifying the current 'Season' of the market. Once you know the season, you know how to dress (allocate) your portfolio."
The 4 Pillars of MarketOwl
We quantitatively analyze the four core engines that drive the global economy.
📊1. Macro Regime
By tracking the rate of change in Growth and Inflation, we diagnose the market into four quadrants: Goldilocks, Reflation, Stagflation, and Deflation. Identifying the current regime is the first step in selecting the optimal asset class.
💧2. True Liquidity
We go beyond simple Fed Assets. We track the Net Liquidity actually available in the market by accounting for the Treasury General Account (TGA) and Reverse Repo (RRP) operations.
Net Liquidity = Fed Assets - TGA - RRP
🧠3. Sentiment
We measure market greed and fear. By synthesizing metrics like the Put/Call Ratio and Junk Bond Spreads, we identify Contrarian Investing opportunities. We help you spot opportunity when the crowd is paralyzed by fear.
🔮4. Leading Indicators
We aim to forecast, not just report. Using the Copper/Gold Ratio and the Yield Curve, our system detects signs of recession or recovery before they are reflected in the stock market.
Technical Edge: Normalized Data (Z-Score)
How do you compare economic indicators with different units (%, $, points)? MarketOwl normalizes all data into Z-Scores.
This allows us to compare a 0.1% change in interest rates directly with a $10 change in oil prices on a standardized scale. We instantly detect Structural Breaks when data moves beyond ±2 standard deviations from the mean.
References
Trusted sources we monitor for macro, trade, and policy signals
International Organizations & Policy
Global financial stability, balance of payments, crisis prevention. Best for the “World Economic Outlook.”
Data and analysis on global development, poverty reduction, and economic prospects for developing nations.
Comparative data and policy analysis for advanced economies—tax, education, trade, and more.
Primary source for international trade laws, tariff data, and dispute settlements.
Central Banking & Data
The “central bank for central banks.” Deep technical analysis on global banking flows and financial stability.
User-friendly aggregator for US and global economic time-series data (GDP, inflation, rates).
Trade & Complexity
Visualizes global trade networks to reveal economic complexity and export structures.
The official repository for detailed international trade statistics.
News, Analysis & Visuals
Op-eds and commentary from Nobel laureates, world leaders, and top economists.
Weekly coverage of global politics and business with an economics lens.
Aggregates official data into easy-to-read calendars and charts for nearly every country.
Long-term historical data visualizations on global living standards and progress.